KAS YRA ALLATRA

Nepriklausoma tarptautinė mokslininkų grupė. Gamtinių nelaimių eksponentinio augimo prognozavimo matematinio modelio sukūrimas

ALLATRA judėjimo istorija prasidėjo dešimtojo dešimtmečio viduryje. Tuomet susikūrė nepriklausoma tarptautinė mokslininkų grupė, atstovaujanti įvairioms mokslo sritims: nuo branduolinės fizikos, astrofizikos ir kosmologijos, geologijos ir geofizikos, teorinės matematikos iki senėjimo biologijos ir gerontologijos bei klinikinės medicinos. Šie specialistai susibūrė, kad atliktų išsamius tarpdisciplininius tyrimus įvairiose srityse, įskaitant klimato ir geodinaminių pokyčių planetoje tyrimus.

Ši mokslininkų grupė, pasižyminti profesine kvalifikacija, objektyvumu ir tarpdisciplinine kompetencija, sugebėjo išsamiai išanalizuoti atitinkamus mokslinius duomenis. Tai leido jiems nustatyti svarbias koreliacijas ir ryšius gerokai anksčiau, nei į tai atkreipė dėmesį pagrindinė mokslo bendruomenė, dažnai suvokusi jų svarbą tik po ilgo laiko.

Vienas iš svarbiausių tokios koreliacijos pavyzdžių, į kurį atkreipė dėmesį ši tarptautinė mokslininkų grupė, buvo 1995 ir 1997-1998 m. įvykę anomalūs geodinaminiai reiškiniai. Tais metais įvairios mokslinės organizacijos ir tyrimų institutai visame pasaulyje, naudodamiesi palydovinėmis stebėjimo sistemomis ir gravitacijos stotimis, nepriklausomai užfiksavo staigius planetos parametrų pokyčius ir geodinamines anomalijas Žemės gelmėse. Minėta tarptautinė mokslininkų grupė išanalizavo duomenis ir nustatė priežasties ir pasekmės ryšį: užfiksuotos geodinaminės anomalijos veikė kaip trigeriai, sukėlę kaskadinius fizikinių parametrų pokyčius skirtinguose Žemės sluoksniuose.

Didžiausią nerimą šiai mokslininkų grupei kėlė tai, kad 1995 ir 1997-1998 m. anomalių įvykių sukelta pokyčių dinamika buvo eksponentinio pobūdžio. Visų pirma mokslininkų grupė užfiksavo, kad nuo 1995 m. ėmė smarkiai didėti giluminių žemės drebėjimų skaičius ir stiprumas, seisminis aktyvumas planetoje, ypač vandenyno dugne, pagreitino magnetinio lauko, atmosferos ir kitų Žemės sluoksnių parametrų pokyčius.

Ši grėsminga tendencija sukėlė didelį susirūpinimą tarptautinei tyrėjų grupei, todėl jie pradėjo nuodugnią priežasčių analizę. Darbų eigoje buvo apsvarstytos įvairios teorijos, hipotezės ir pastebėtų anomalijų paaiškinimai, įskaitant hipotezę apie ryšį tarp pokyčių Žemės gelmėse ir astronominių procesų Saulės sistemoje.

Igoris Michailovičius Danilovas atliko svarbų vaidmenį šios tarptautinės mokslinių tyrimų grupės veikloje ir buvo vienintelis grupės narys, kuris viešai nurodė, kad dalyvauja šiuose tyrimuose. Jo tarpdisciplininis požiūris ir netradicinis mąstymas suvaidino svarbų vaidmenį nustatant mokslinių tyrimų vektorių ir praplėtė metodologinį tyrimų pagrindą, o tai prisidėjo prie naujų hipotezių formavimo tiriant klimato ir geodinaminius procesus.

Nepriklausoma mokslininkų komanda, atlikusi intensyvų analitinį darbą ir remdamasi gausiais duomenimis, sukūrė matematinį modelį, pagal kurį galima prognozuoti klimato ir geodinaminių pokyčių Žemėje tempą. Pakartotinai išbandę modelį, jie buvo priversti pripažinti svarbų faktą: atsižvelgiant į užfiksuotą eksponentinį planetos klimato ir geodinaminių pokyčių skaičiaus ir stiprumo augimą, sąlygos Žemėje per artimiausius kelis dešimtmečius taps nesuderinamos su gyvybe.

Svarbu pabrėžti, kad šios tyrėjų grupės prognozėse buvo daroma prielaida, kad klimato kaita vyks daug sparčiau nei tuo metu (XX a. 9-ojo dešimtmečio viduryje) vyraujančios mokslo bendruomenės pateikti skaičiavimai. Dauguma klimatologų ir kitų mokslininkų prognozavo klimato sistemos stabilumą šimtmečiams, o ši mokslininkų grupė padarė išvadą, kad klimato sistemos žlugimas įvyks daug greičiau - per artimiausius kelis dešimtmečius. Dabartiniai stebėjimai nuo 2024 m. patvirtina modelio prognozes.

Dešimtajame dešimtmetyje nepriklausomos mokslininkų grupės parengtoje prognozėje nurodoma, kad jau per kelis ateinančius dešimtmečius planetoje įvyks šie pokyčiai:

1. Spartus atmosferos ir vandenynų temperatūros kilimas;
2. Didėjantis griaunančių uraganų ir tornadų skaičius ir stiprumas, taip pat jų paplitimo arealas;
3. Nepaprastai padidėjęs miškų gaisrų skaičius ir stiprumas;
4. Gausių kritulių ir niokojančių potvynių skaičiaus didėjimas;
5. Dažnesnis ir stipresnis ugnikalnių aktyvumas;
6. Eksponentinis seisminio aktyvumo augimas įvairiuose Žemės regionuose, įskaitant tuos, kuriems toks aktyvumas nėra būdingas.

Nepriklausomų mokslininkų grupė priėjo prie nerimą keliančios išvados, kad šių klimato ir geodinaminių pokyčių derinys jau XXI a. pradžioje sukels milžinišką destrukciją: pasaulinių ekosistemų, aprūpinimo maistu saugumo, socialinio ir ekonominio stabilumo sutrikdymą iki šiol neregėtu mastu, didžiulius žmonių nuostolius ir priverstinį milijardų žmonių teritorinį persikėlimą.

Mokslininkai taip pat pabrėžė, kad dėl kaskadinio pobūdžio vykstančių klimato katastrofų, kurios nuolat stiprės ir persidengs viena su kita, neišvengiamai bus pasiekta kritinė riba. Dėl to žmonija nesugebės susidoroti su kylančiais iššūkiais, kurie faktiškai viršys mūsų civilizacijos prisitaikymo galimybes.

Išsamesnės informacijos apie didėjantį klimato kataklizmų skaičių ir stiprumą, taip pat apie galimų situacijos raidos scenarijų prognozavimo modelį galima rasti ataskaitoje „Apie klimato kataklizmų progresavimą Žemėje ir jų katastrofiškas pasekmes“.

Taigi nešališkas integruotas tarpdisciplininis požiūris, apimantis geodinaminių ir astrofizikinių veiksnių analizę, leido šiai nepriklausomai tyrimų grupei praėjusio amžiaus dešimtojo dešimtmečio viduryje atrasti ir giliai suprasti pavojų, kurį žmonijai kelia eksponentiškai didėjantis griaunančių gamtos katastrofų skaičius ir intensyvumas. Beveik prieš 30 metų jie suprato, kad kylanti klimato grėsmė kelia, be jokio perdėjimo, egzistencinį pavojų visai žmonijai.

Iniciatyvinės savanorių grupės aplink mokslinį branduolį sukūrimas

Šios tarpdisciplininės tyrimų grupės nariai, vedami gilaus atsakomybės jausmo už ateities kartas ir tvirto įsipareigojimo atlikti savo profesinę pareigą, ėmėsi misijos nustatyti pagrindines geodinaminių ir klimato anomalijų, kurios prasidėjo planetoje, priežastis, rasti sprendimą, galintį užkirsti kelią gresiantiems katastrofiškiems klimato reiškiniams, išgelbėti žmonių gyvybes ir išsaugoti ateitį naujoms kartoms.

Siekdama įgyvendinti integruotą požiūrį, tyrėjų grupė pradėjo nuodugnios istorinės ir kultūrinės analizės procesą. Šį sprendimą lėmė suvokimas, kad raktą į dabartinių geodinaminių procesų supratimą, be kita ko, galima rasti istoriniuose duomenyse apie Žemės klimato ciklus ir, be kita ko, jų įtaką civilizacijų raidai praeityje.

Dėl padidėjusios tyrimo apimties atsirado platesnis dalyvių ratas. Iniciatyva patraukė ir jaunųjų mokslininkų, ir aktyvistų - įvairių profesijų savanorių, kurie yra susirūpinę dėl pasaulinės klimato kaitos ir jos keliamo pavojaus masto netolimoje ateityje, dėmesį. Susibūrus tarptautinei savanorių bendruomenei aplink mokslinį branduolį, labai pagerėjo galimybės rinkti, analizuoti mokslinius šaltinius ir duomenis įvairiomis kalbomis.

Savanoriai padėjo ieškoti reikiamos istorinės informacijos, analizavo archyvinius dokumentus, pirminius šaltinius, kronikas, mokslinius leidinius, istorinę medžiagą, padėjo patikrinti antropologinių ir archeologinių tyrimų duomenis. Jie taip pat atliko įvairių epochų ir civilizacijų folkloro, religinių ir kultūrinių aspektų bei kultūros artefaktų tyrimus.

Toks tarpdisciplininis požiūris ir įvairių mokslo sričių, įskaitant paleoklimatologiją, archeologiją ir kultūrinę antropologiją, duomenų integravimas sudarė sąlygas susidaryti išsamesnį ilgalaikės planetos kaitos vaizdą, kuris buvo labai svarbus tyrėjų grupei tiriant vykstančios klimato krizės ir geodinaminių pokyčių priežastis.

Suprasti, kad reikia perduoti informaciją tarptautinei bendruomenei. Pagrindinių tikslų nustatymas

Vykdant tolesnius tyrimus paaiškėjo, kad norint nuodugniai išanalizuoti Žemės gelmėse ir įvairiuose jos sluoksniuose vykstančias geofizines anomalijas, būtina pasitelkti tarptautinę mokslininkų bendruomenę, kuri leistų patikrinti su branduoline fizika ir astrofizika susijusias hipotezes apie klimato ir geodinaminių pokyčių priežastis, taip pat užtikrinti gretutinių disciplinų žinių integraciją. Suvokiant, kad galimos stebimų klimato ir geodinaminių pokyčių priežastys gali būti susijusios su kvantinės fizikos reiškiniais, buvo labai svarbu įtraukti pirmaujančius šių sričių ekspertus ir mokslinių tyrimų grupes, kad būtų galima bendrai analizuoti duomenis ir kurti veiksmingus sprendimus.

Buvo aišku, kad tokio sudėtingumo problemai spręsti reikia sutelkti žmonijos kolektyvinį intelektą, kad būtų veiksmingai sprendžiama kritinė klimato grėsmė. Tai tapo iššūkiu esamai mokslo komandai ir ją remiantiems savanoriams: kaip sutelkti geriausius pasaulio teorinio ir taikomojo mokslo protus, kad būtų nustatytos pagrindinės pavojingų klimato ir geodinaminių pokyčių priežastys ir sukurti veiksmingi sprendimai joms šalinti?

Beveik iš karto tapo akivaizdu, kad oficialūs mokslo pramonės komunikacijos kanalai, taip pat biurokratinė mokslo ir valdžios struktūrų sistema nepadės atlikti užduoties, nes tai yra uždara sistema, kuri nėra pritaikyta visiškam lankstumui ir greitam reagavimui į pokyčius. Tai neleido greitai pranešti apie visos problemos rimtumą ir sudaryti sąlygas veiksmingai suvienyti mokslininkus jos sprendimui.

Todėl dabartinėje situacijoje nepriklausoma tarptautinė mokslininkų grupė kartu su savanoriais, remiančiais jų pastangas, priėmė vienintelį įmanomą ir racionalų sprendimą. Jie priėjo išvados, kad pirmiausia būtina informuoti plačiąją pasaulio visuomenę apie kritinį klimato katastrofų eksponentinio augimo problemos rimtumą.

Visuomenės informuotumas ir tarptautinis dėmesys šiai problemai gali sudaryti sąlygas nepriklausomoms diskusijoms akademinėje bendruomenėje ir mokslo pastangų sutelkimui pasauliniu lygmeniu, kad būtų rastas išsamus klimato problemos sprendimas.

Taip pat buvo akivaizdu, kad pasaulio visuomenės susiskaldymas yra didelė kliūtis pasauliniam mokslo potencialui konsoliduoti. Be to, kruopščiai sumodeliavę įvairius katastrofiškų klimato reiškinių scenarijus ir pasaulio bendruomenės atsaką į juos, mokslininkai priėjo išvados, kad visuomenės susiskaidymas vaidina itin neigiamą vaidmenį. Skirtingai nei darni bendruomenė, stereotipų, prietarų, išankstinių nuostatų ir kultūrinių skirtumų suskaldytai visuomenei sunkiau sutelkti pastangas ir veiksmingai įveikti didelio masto krizines situacijas.

Pripažindami, kad artėjančios klimato katastrofos neišvengiamai sukels didelio masto migraciją, paliesiančią milijardus žmonių, mokslininkai ir savanoriai suprato, kad labai svarbu būti humaniškiems, solidariems, empatiškiems ir suprasti skirtingas kultūras, ypač atsižvelgiant į būsimus iššūkius.

Todėl mokslininkų grupė suprato, kad labai svarbu ne tik konsoliduoti tarptautines mokslines pastangas, bet ir sukurti bendrą pasaulinę platformą, kurios misija būtų ne tik tirti klimatą ir informuoti apie klimato krizę, bet ir plėtoti bei nustatyti bendrus pagrindus ir vertybes tarp skirtingų kultūrų ir tautų, ypač pabrėžiant visuotinę žmogaus gyvybės vertę ir būtinybę gerbti pagrindines žmogaus teises ir laisves, įtvirtintas tarptautinėse teisės normose ir standartuose, net precedento neturinčiuose klimato kaitos ir masinės migracijos sąlygose.

Todėl tarptautinė entuziastų ir mokslininkų grupė suformulavo vieną pagrindinę savo veiklos misiją, apimančią tris pagrindinius uždavinius:

1. Išsamiai ištirti pasaulinių klimato ir geodinaminių pokyčių planetoje priežastis ir pradėti ieškoti sprendimo, kaip įveikti jų keliamą pavojų;
2. Įspėti tarptautinę bendruomenę apie gresiančią klimato grėsmę ir sudaryti sąlygas konsoliduoti tarptautinius mokslinius pajėgumus jai įveikti;
3. Prisidėti prie pasaulio bendruomenės susiskaldymo įveikimo skatinant žmogaus gyvybės vertę ir tarptautinio supratimo svarbą pasaulinių iššūkių akivaizdoje.

Tarptautinio visuomeninio judėjimo ALLATRA įkūrimas

Siekdama šio tikslo, grupė savanorių, norinčių padėti mokslininkams įgyvendinti jų misiją, pradėjo įgyvendinti įvairius projektus, pasitelkdami savo įgūdžius ir žinias. Kiekvienas dalyvis stengėsi prisidėti prie bendro tikslo, remdamasis savo profesine patirtimi, įgūdžiais ir interesais.

Vienas pirmųjų darbų buvo leidybos projektai, apimantys knygų ir straipsnių įvairiomis temomis leidybą. Pagrindinis šių iniciatyvų tikslas buvo atkreipti visuomenės dėmesį į būtinybę spręsti klimato problemas ir konsoliduoti visuomenę bendros grėsmės akivaizdoje.

Plečiantis bendraminčių, siekiančių bendrų tikslų ir uždavinių, ratui, atsirado poreikis oficialiai registruoti veiklą. Kolektyvinės iniciatyvos dėka 2011 m. buvo įregistruota organizacija „Lagoda“, kuri tapo pirmąja oficialia asociacijos forma. Šios organizacijos rėmuose buvo įgyvendinami įvairūs istorinės ir kultūrinės krypties socialiniai projektai. Dauguma šios organizacijos veiklų buvo orientuotos į tarpkultūrinio dialogo ir savitarpio supratimo stiprinimą - taip buvo įgyvendinama dalis jų paskirtų uždavinių, susijusių su visuotinio visuomenės susiskaldymo įveikimu.

Kadangi vis daugiau savanorių prisijungia iš įvairių šalių, atsirado poreikis sukurti didesnę iniciatyvą, kuri leistų įgyvendinti įvairesnius tarptautinius projektus, skirtus tirti ir informuoti visuomenę apie kritinius planetos klimato ir geodinaminius pokyčius.

Tuo tikslu iki tol suburta tarptautinė komanda, kurią sudarė mokslininkai, savanoriai ir įvairių profesijų specialistai, 2012 m. nusprendė įkurti tarptautinį visuomeninį judėjimą ALLATRA. 2014 m., atlikus būtinas teisines ir administracines procedūras, judėjimas buvo oficialiai įregistruotas.

In 2017, participants of the ALLATRA Movement decided to move the organization's head office from Kyiv, Ukraine, to Atlanta, USA. Because the ALLATRA Movement supports freedom and democracy, and democratic processes in the United States are more stable compared to those in Eastern Europe, it was decided to move the Movement's major activities to the United States of America. Marina Ovtsynova, a US citizen, became the President of the ALLATRA International Public Movement.

Thus, the Movement formed as a result of the evolution of volunteers’ association around an international group of scientists who back in the late 20th century realized the threat of the climate crisis and clearly formulated their mission to address it. This mission was supported by enthusiasts around the world who also understood the need to preserve our planet and life on it.

Since the establishment of ALLATRA's scientific core in the mid-90s, the Movement's goals, principles, and values have remained unchanged up to the present day.

ALLATRA is a movement that unites people driven by a sense of responsibility to present and future generations for the preservation of our planet and the prevention of climate collapse.

ALLATRA is, first and foremost, made up of people who act with concern for others. They are ordinary citizens, representatives of various professions and spheres of society. In addition to their primary occupations, they make every effort in their free time to prevent the unfolding catastrophic climate scenario on our planet, to inform society about the upcoming threats, and to unite the world community around the solution to this urgent issue.

Format of the Movement’s Activities

ALLATRA is a decentralized movement with no hierarchical structure. In some countries, coordination centers operate, each representing an association of volunteers for exchanging experiences and knowledge with the aim of jointly implementing diverse initiatives. The main task of the coordination centers is to facilitate the exchange of best practices and ideas among the Movement participants internationally. Local Movement volunteers are autonomous in making decisions on projects and initiatives they implement to achieve a common goal.

There are no financial obligations, membership fees, or regulations in the ALLATRA Movement. Volunteers organize their activities at their own discretion, taking into account and enhancing the experiences of other participants.

The Movement does not interfere in any way with its participants' personal ideological, religious, or political views, and participants' personal views do not affect the Movement's direction and goals.

A unifying and consolidating factor for all the ALLATRA participants, regardless of their worldview, beliefs or philosophical convictions, is the topic of the climate crisis and understanding of the need

• to carry out a more comprehensive research of all causes of the changes that are currently taking place on Earth,
• to inform the international community about the real scale of climate change,
• to promote open scientific discussion and search for ways to confront the current climate threat.

At the same time, the ALLATRA Movement defends fundamental democratic values and human rights, prioritizing the dignity and freedom of every individual. ALLATRA emphasizes the importance of freedom of speech, freedom of assembly and other fundamental rights, regarding them as integral parts of a healthy society.

To promote these values, ALLATRA organizes international online conferences, conducts educational work through various media platforms, produces documentaries, and shares information in more than 150 languages, aiming to raise public awareness of the importance of democratic principles and to involve people in an open dialogue and a collaborative search for solutions to global problems.

Predictive accuracy of the methodological approach of ALLATRA in studying the issue of climate change

ALLATRA's unique, independent position allows it to remain an autonomous platform, offering an opportunity for unbiased and impartial study of climatic and geodynamic changes, as well as a wide range of issues relevant to present-day society. The Movement's democratic direction encourages scientific discussion free from thematic restrictions, stereotypes, or external influence, fostering a productive interdisciplinary international dialogue.

Such an unbiased, objective approach by ALLATRA participants to studying climate change has proven its efficiency and high predictive accuracy. Notably, back in 2014, the Movement published excerpts from a climate report containing several forecasts based on long-term climate studies.

The main forecasts in the report indicated that in the coming decades, the world would face a significant worsening of the global climate situation, an increase in both the number and severity of climate disasters and a sharp rise in the total number of climate refugees.

It is noteworthy that in 2014, this alarming information was met with skepticism by the mainstream scientific community, as estimates and forecasts within conventional scientific practice painted a much more optimistic picture of the coming decade. At that time, only a handful of scientists recognized the significance of the information provided and felt compelled to join the project.

Currently, skepticism in this regard within the expert community is gradually fading, and experts openly admit that their previous estimates were insufficiently accurate, acknowledging the potential presence of additional influencing factors and confirming that climate change is occurring much faster than previously assumed. Clearly, they now observe the changes and events that ALLATRA researchers warned about with striking accuracy.

As of 2024, it can be confidently stated that the observed critical trends in climate event development closely align with the forecasts made by the ALLATRA Movement and a group of scientists a decade ago.

ALLATRA TV PROJECT

The activities of the ALLATRA Movement have catalyzed the development of large-scale volunteer projects, among which ALLATRA TV holds a special place. This project is an innovative, independent media platform with a network of channels in multiple languages, where volunteer participants undertake a wide range of media initiatives.

What makes ALLATRA TV unique is that its content is created by people from diverse professions, sometimes even those with no prior connection to the media field. Nevertheless, these individuals independently acquire the necessary skills and train each other on a volunteer basis to carry out their initiatives and collaboratively create socially valuable content in numerous languages around the world.

ALLATRA TV features a diverse array of content formats, including blogs, live broadcasts, news programs, animated films, and documentaries.

ALLATRA TV serves as a multifaceted information platform covering a wide range of topics that are directly or indirectly related to the Movement’s main mission — addressing climate issues. The content of ALLATRA TV features not only climate research, but also explores various thematic areas, such as history, cultural studies, archaeology, religious studies, sociology, economics, psychology, philosophy, and many others.

Since this information is crucial for the development of modern society, many of these findings have been highlighted in various programs on ALLATRA TV.

A distinguishing feature of ALLATRA TV is that it provides an unconventional and independent perspective on various historical, cultural, and religious phenomena. This approach allows the audience to receive analyses extending beyond mainstream paradigms and initiate open discussions on pressing issues. As all video materials are produced by individuals from different countries and cultures, this ensures a wide range of opinions and a free expression of views, without focusing on a single perspective. ALLATRA TV fosters an environment of openness and diversity in the topics discussed.

The variety of formats enables ALLATRA TV to effectively convey important information to a diverse global audience, raising awareness about climate issues and encouraging active participation in resolving them.

ALLATRA TV has pioneered the creation of a public platform for covering climate events from the perspective of eyewitnesses. Long before similar initiatives were implemented by mainstream media, ALLATRA TV provided a platform for people who had directly experienced extreme weather events, allowing the global community to learn firsthand about what is happening with the climate in different parts of the planet. Furthermore, ALLATRA TV channel was the first to begin broadcasting breaking news about climate events, delivering timely and accurate information to the public.

The distinctive feature of ALLATRA TV is that the information it publishes about climate disasters occurring in various parts of the world often comes as a revelation to residents of other countries. Viewers can see a holistic picture and observe the global progression of climate changes happening on the planet. Such broadcasts on ALLATRA TV have provided the audience with an opportunity to gain a fuller understanding of the scope and impact of climate change on different regions, offering critical data and context for a deeper understanding of pressing climate issues.

Notably, a significant number of scientists who were involved in the Movement from its inception could not openly participate in public events due to the nature of their professional work and safety concerns. An exception to this was Igor Mikhailovich Danilov, a member of the initial group of researchers around whom the volunteer group eventually formed. They subsequently initiated the establishment of ALLATRA International Public Movement.

Igor Mikhailovich was fully aware of not only the reputational risks, but also of more serious threats that could arise from becoming a public figure. At the same time, he deeply understood the climate threat facing humanity and the critical need for further research to overcome those risks. Thus, he consciously chose to take on a public role in this area. He prioritized humanity’s safety over his personal one.

Igor Mikhailovich Danilov became one of the public faces of ALLATRA TV, actively participating in interviews and discussions. His work set a new trend in climate research, creating conditions necessary for public discourse. This helped raise public awareness of relevant ideas, engage people in investigating climate issues, and support scientific initiatives. Thus, independent scientists were able to continue their research and take initiatives in this field, furthering the development and deepening of knowledge on climate change.

The information that Igor Mikhailovich shared publicly set new benchmarks both for the scientific community in the context of their climate research and for the broader public, creating precedents for important discussions and initiatives.

Thanks to the active volunteer efforts of Movement participants, ALLATRA TV's video content is actively translated into various languages, reaching a wide audience of viewers across the globe. ALLATRA TV is just one of many projects implemented by ALLATRA participants from different countries.

Through the efforts of volunteers, ALLATRA TV content is disseminated worldwide in over 150 languages across diverse online platforms and social media. Participants initiate and take part in various international conferences discussing key issues related to climate change. They interview leading scientists and experts in this field, produce documentaries, and develop various forms of media content, which contribute to raising awareness of climate change issues at the international level and foster discussions on sustainable development. The work of ALLATRA volunteers is highly appreciated by the international community for their commitment to democratic values, transparency, and courage in addressing climate issues and advocating for human rights.

Participation of ALLATRA Volunteers in the Creative Society Project

As the international recognition and influence of the ALLATRA Movement grew, the scope of its cooperation with other initiatives that share similar goals and values naturally expanded. The international project, Creative Society, has become one of its key partners.

The project centers on discussing a new societal model called the Creative Society, which presents comprehensive solutions to global crises and aims to ensure a future free of wars, conflicts, violence, poverty, and hunger. Its goal is to create a working societal model that supports humanity in a rapid and peaceful transition to a new evolutionary stage — one focused on ensuring every person’s safety, health, well-being, and all-round development.

The initiative of the Creative Society international project originated in the USA and currently unites millions of people worldwide who support the idea of creating a society based on universal values. The scientific data on Earth's climatic and geodynamic changes used in the Creative Society project is derived from research by scientists and activists within the ALLATRA Movement.

While remaining autonomous, ALLATRA and Creative Society effectively complement each other’s efforts in raising public awareness of climate threats. ALLATRA volunteers have actively participated in various initiatives on the Creative Society platform, including numerous forums, conferences, and other events designed to raise awareness of climate change and promote universal human values.

A series of large-scale online forums, organized on the Creative Society platform under the title "Global Crisis," has been translated into 150 languages through volunteer efforts. This enabled critical climate information to reach a global audience and greatly motivated communities worldwide to seek solutions to the urgent challenges facing humanity today.

CLAIM REGARDING FICTION BOOKS

In accusations levied against ALLATRA within slanderous articles initiated by RACIRS, references are made to fiction books that journalists deliberately associate with the Movement and whose content is intentionally distorted to damage the Movement's reputation.

As part of this targeted campaign to discredit ALLATRA, the authors of these defamatory publications intentionally ignore the diverse activities and core purpose of this international Movement, instead artificially focusing exclusively on a few fiction books. These books were initially published as one of many initiatives to draw attention to climate issues long before the establishment of the ALLATRA Movement or even its predecessor organization, Lagoda. Reducing the ideology and multifaceted work of an international Movement to a few literary works is absurd, even from the standpoint of formal logic, clearly indicating deliberate distortion and disinformation by the initiators of this discrediting campaign.

First and foremost, it is essential to emphasize that works of fiction cannot be viewed as the Movement ideology and do not serve as such de facto. The ALLATRA IPM charter contains no references to any works of fiction. The Movement's goals and objectives are clearly defined in its foundational documents.

Formation and development of public movements is a complex social process influenced by numerous factors. Reducing this process to the impact of a single literary source is an unjustified gross simplification. The very assertion that the ideology of an international movement uniting people from 180 countries with diverse nationalities, beliefs, professions, and viewpoints can be fully defined by the literary works of a single author is absurd, unfounded, illogical, and manipulative. Such accusations contradict fundamental principles of law, freedom of speech, and freedom of association, enshrined in international legal documents.

In the context of the disinformation campaign initiated by RACIRS against ALLATRA, there has been an attempt to deliberately exaggerate and even criminalize the influence of specific literary works on the public Movement, while, in reality, such influence is nonexistent. Furthermore, the mentioned literary works were aimed to draw public attention to social and climate issues, as well as to promote the development of emotional intelligence among readers, including skills in self-control and critical thinking. Such goals are legitimate and socially significant, and they are protected by the right to freedom of expression.

It is also important to note that works of fiction, along with the literary devices used within them, cannot be interpreted as an expression of the author’s actual beliefs. Works of fiction, by definition, are a product of imagination. The author's explicit statement about the fictional nature of characters and events at the beginning of each book establishes a clear boundary between reality and artistic invention. Attempting to discredit and criminalize an entire organization based on works of fiction that, moreover, has no relation to its current activities and objectives contradicts not only the principles of freedom of speech and expression enshrined in international legal acts and national constitutions, but even basic common sense. If literary works do not contain violations of established legal restrictions, such as calls for violence or incitement to hatred, they are not subject to censorship.

In defamatory articles against ALLATRA, their authors deliberately employ the manipulative technique of framing. It’s a method of presenting information that influences the way the audience perceives and interprets it. Framing is based on the premise that the context in which information is presented can significantly alter its meaning and perception. Thus, framing is a powerful tool of manipulation that influences how people understand and respond to information. Journalists often use this manipulative technique against ALLATRA and its participants. They combine selective distorted information from the aforementioned fiction books, false statements about the Movement, and their own deformed interpretations, presenting all of this as objective data, while these “data” are nothing more than lies. Such an approach constitutes a gross manipulation of the reader's trust, discredits law-abiding participants of the ALLATRA Movement, and violates international legislation on human rights and freedoms, including the protection of dignity.

CLAIM REGARDING THE CREATIVE SOCIETY PROJECT

Slanderous articles about ALLATRA, produced in a uniform style that appears to have been crafted by RACIRS agents, also mention "accusations" regarding ALLATRA's connections with the "Creative Society" project. The Creative Society activities are presented in a distorted manner, completely misrepresenting the essence of the project. Journalists have formulated their own definition of the Creative Society, which has never appeared on the project’s official resources or in its description of its own ideas, goals, and tasks. They again employed the manipulative framing technique, linking elements from the ideas of the Creative Society project with fragments of the aforementioned fiction books, while adding their own conclusions necessary to tarnish ALLATRA’s reputation.

That is, the journalists, seemingly under the influence of RACIRS rhetoric, first formulated their own distorted vision of the Creative Society concept that does not correspond to reality. Then, based on this fabricated definition, they accused the ALLATRA Movement of supporting and promoting this idea.

It is important to emphasize that the concept of the Creative Society arose in response to people’s demands identified through large-scale sociological surveys carried out worldwide. In those surveys, people expressed their visions of the society they want to see in the future. Over time, the Creative Society concept transformed, developed, and enriched itself. Various meetings, round tables, and discussions were held with the participation of specialists and experts from different fields: economists, sociologists, lawyers, cultural figures, politicians, and public activists. Experts of global renown also participated in discussions. At those events, specialists collaboratively sought optimal solutions for creating a model of a stable, safe, and comfortable societal structure. Models for a sustainable future were discussed, based on the principles of freedom and democracy that embody the UN ideals.

Meanwhile, in their defamatory materials, journalists who echoed the rhetoric of the Russian pro-religious organization RACIRS intentionally distorted activities of the project participants. They employed the aforementioned framing technique for that purpose. For example, instead of using the phrase “discuss unconditional basic income,” as was actually the case, disinformation materials deliberately rephrased it as “promise unconditional basic income,” which, of course, was never promised on any official platforms of the Creative Society project or the ALLATRA Movement.

STIGMATIZATION WITH DEROGATORY TERMS “CULT” AND “SECT”

Part of the discrediting campaign launched by RACIRS against ALLATRA is stigmatization of the Movement by using pejorative and dehumanizing terms such as “sect,” “cult,” and “apocalyptic cult.” These messages are deliberately retransmitted according to RACIRC's templates from article to article, intentionally creating a negative image of ALLATRA participants.

In reality, however, the activities of the ALLATRA Movement do not align with any established definitions of these stigmatizing terms. This is because ALLATRA participants include individuals from various religions and religious traditions, as well as numerous atheists, agnostics, and individuals with other forms of beliefs. Participation in the ALLATRA Movement is in no way connected to, influenced by, or dependent upon a person's religious or moral beliefs and does not seek to define them.

The authors of defamatory materials try to label the Movement as an “apocalyptic cult” because its volunteers actively address climate issues. However, the information presented by the ALLATRA Movement about the acute climate situation is based solely on independent scientific research and mathematical calculations. Hypotheses on the increasing number and severity of catastrophic climate events in the near future have been generated precisely on the basis of scientific evidence.

It should be noted that recent statements by UN representatives and the scientific community regarding the alarming climate situation often sound even more acute than those used by the ALLATRA Movement to express its concerns about climate, for instance, “This coming century may be one of humanity's last” (A. Guterres); “If we don't take action, the collapse of our civilization… is on the horizon” (D. Attenborough), and many others. However, this does not provide grounds for characterizing the UN as an “apocalyptic cult.” In the case of ALLATRA, the authors of defamatory materials deliberately use stigmatizing and terrifying terms, select manipulative epithets that evoke negative emotions in the audience, and take phrases and information out of context in order to form a certain negative perception of the Movement.

Slanderous articles often manipulate the scientific hypothesis publicly presented by the ALLATRA Movement participants. This hypothesis concerns a possible escalation of natural disasters by 2036 to such an extent that humanity’s very existence could be at serious risk. It also includes an assumption of a possible sudden increase in magmatic activity in the Mariana Trench area, the thinnest part of the oceanic plate, due to significant escalation of the planet’s geodynamic activity, which can have catastrophic consequences.

Disinformation sources deliberately present this hypothesis in a distorted manner. In particular, they intentionally omit the fact that this scenario is primarily a hypothesis and is based on mathematical calculations, scientific data analysis, and studies of similar catastrophic scenarios observed on planets near Earth. Even if such scenarios are hypothetically possible, the public has the right to know about them so as to understand the scale and critical nature of the ongoing climatic and geodynamic changes.

The fact that the climate crisis we are facing today can make conditions on Earth unlivable is recognized by the majority of the scientific community. The main question of debates focuses on the timeline within which this can happen as well as humanity’s ability to develop adaptive mechanisms to address this challenge.

It should be noted that ALLATRA’s standpoint has never been one of “denying” the anthropogenic factor in climate change. ALLATRA has certainly provided a platform for scientists to express diverse views, including those who adhered to such a point of view. However, this was done in the context of interdisciplinary dialogue and as a reflection of the variety of scientific perspectives.

Recognizing CO₂ as a significant anthropogenic factor critically influencing climate transformations, representatives of the ALLATRA scientific community acknowledge a possibility that some other factors may also contribute to the observed rapid climate change. The recorded accelerated and unforeseen collapse of the climate system, as well as the increase in anomalies and the intensity of catastrophes, indicate the potential presence of additional influencing factors, such as geodynamic processes, specifically the growth of magmatic and volcanic activity, the increase in geothermal heat, and the influence of both near and deep space.

In this regard, ALLATRA calls for initiation of an independent international scientific dialogue aimed at identifying and investigating such possible additional factors and finding solutions to mitigate their impact.

In the context of the discrediting campaign initiated by RACIRS, the ALLATRA Movement is being portrayed as a stereotypical "apocalyptic cult" that, in their depiction, "frightens people with the end of the world and claims that only its followers will be saved, so one must urgently join this cult." However, such rhetoric has never been expressed by participants of the ALLATRA Movement in any context, nor could it be.

On the contrary, the emphasis has always been on the idea that overcoming the climate crisis is possible only through the consolidation of scientists from various fields, as well as the unification of both theoretical and technical scientific foundations.

ALLATRA participants are reasonable individuals who, above all, wish to live, to see their families and children thrive, and to ensure humanity's survival.

However, the current discrediting campaign against the Movement, initiated by the Russian pro-religious organization RACIRS, is diminishing the seriousness of the climate threat by attempting to brand it with labels of "apocalypticism" or "fake news."

The deliberate undermining of climate issues may stem from the fact that addressing them requires building international consensus and uniting humanity in the face of a global threat. This scenario inevitably sidelines geopolitical ambitions, prioritizing a period of international stability to tackle urgent, universal challenges collectively. Such a development likely conflicts with the interests of particular groups focused on undermining democratic institutions and destabilizing international relations, as their destructive actions would become evident to the global community in an environment of worldwide cooperation.

The destructive actions within the discrediting campaign against the ALLATRA Movement devalue the UN agenda, international community efforts to address climate issues, and initiatives to find solutions to these challenges, even as the United Nations calls for heightened awareness, promotion, and concrete action on these matters. As a result, ALLATRA participants find themselves in a situation where their legitimate democratic rights are being violated, while the topic of climate change is significantly undermined, ridiculed, and diminished in importance.

Such devaluation ultimately delays the process of uniting to overcome climate challenges. While humanity fails to take necessary action, countless individuals continue to suffer the real consequences of catastrophic climate change.

Therefore, actions aimed at downplaying climate issues do nothing to resolve them or protect the interests of people; instead, they exacerbate the situation humanity faces amid escalating climate disasters.

Discrediting Campaign Against Igor Mikhailovich Danilov

Journalists in various countries have employed identical defamatory arguments aimed at discrediting the ALLATRA Movement, initially formulated by the Russian pro-religious organization RACIRS. However, merely stigmatizing the target organization was not enough for them; to intensify their campaign, they needed to identify or designate a leader of the organization, whom they could then discredit and entirely dehumanize.

In this case, an active participant of the ALLATRA Movement, Igor Mikhailovich Danilov, became the subject of unjust defamation, dehumanization, and a ruthless, dishonorable smear campaign in the media. Several factors influenced their choice of this “target.”

Recognizing the importance of addressing socially significant topics and showing genuine care for people and society as a whole, Igor Mikhailovich actively participated in ALLATRA’s media initiatives, becoming a regular contributor to its broadcast series. Videos featuring Igor Mikhailovich covered a broad range of relevant and critical issues, drawing global public attention.

His expertise in numerous scientific areas, extensive knowledge in climatology and other scientific fields, along with his strong ethical values and altruistic work, earned him the recognition and sincere respect of many people worldwide. This, coupled with the growing public interest in Igor Mikhailovich’s persona, played a crucial role in RACIRS’s decision to target him. Subsequently, authors of slanderous publications repeatedly attempted to portray him as a “cult leader.” They launched an inhumane, unlawful campaign of harassment against him, as well as his family and loved ones.

It is important to note that, despite the well-deserved respect and recognition he received from viewers, Igor Mikhailovich has never positioned himself as the leader of the ALLATRA Movement. On the contrary, he has repeatedly and publicly stated his status as an ordinary participant and volunteer. However, RACIRS agents intentionally ignored his position. As a result, it appears that under RACIRS’s guidance, a prolonged campaign was launched to discredit Igor Mikhailovich, as well as his family and loved ones, through the dissemination of blatantly false defamatory information. This smear campaign targeted innocent individuals with egregious violations of fundamental human rights, journalistic ethics, and international legal standards.

During the defamation campaign targeting Igor Mikhailovich and his family, slanderous materials containing false information and baseless accusations were systematically disseminated. Personal statements were deliberately distorted by taking phrases out of context and subsequently editing them manipulatively. The defamatory articles, appearing in various countries, followed a uniform template, echoed the same RACIRS-driven rhetoric, and aimed at one goal: to create a demonized public image of a “dangerous cult leader.”

What was the purpose behind these actions? The answer lies in the words of the RACIRS leader: “...they will probably continue to exist as long as their gurus are alive… Most cults end when their leader passes away.”

It is noteworthy that mass media repeatedly disseminated private information, including details about personal data of Igor Mikhailovich and his family, such as their names, surnames, places of residence, and workplaces. This information was broadcast on major TV channels solely in a negative, defamatory context. Disclosing such data without consent constitutes a severe violation of privacy laws, poses a threat to personal safety, and may be regarded as harassment aimed at intimidation, psychological pressure, and discreditation.

It is crucial to note that systematic dissemination of false information and defamation through the media infringes on the right to protection of honor and reputation, enshrined in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights. Deliberate distortion of statements by taking them out of context to create a negative image contradicts the principles of freedom of expression and the right to a fair representation of one's position. Creating a hostile atmosphere around an individual based on their assumed beliefs also violates the principle of equality before the law and the prohibition of discrimination.